Going, going, gone

I mentioned in an earlier blog that this could be an eventful week. While the action on the track was nothing to write home about (cashed a few checks), the stable looks much different today than it did a week ago. Art of Diplomocy was claimed away from us today. We realized a small profit for the 8 weeks we owned him. While he and Saint's Relic left via the claim box, Thrill of Victory and Slapout were given away last night in exchange for what may end being a small amount of cash if they run well for their new owner. Additionally, once Jamie got a look at Miltos Express down in Ocala, it was determined her ankle did not heal sufficiently and her racing days are over. We are hopeful a buyer can be found who will utilize her as a broodmare.

This leaves us with just a handful of runners in training. Our next race will not be for at least 10 days. The attrition of the stable is finally at a point where I am comfortable. Contrary to what one might think, it is not easy to give away a horse. Essentially, you need to find someone willing to assume a liability. That said, the reduction of expenses along with the proceeds from this week's claims gives us some more chips to play with. While it may not seem like it, I believe the stable is in a better position to move forward than it was 2 months ago.

Almost like a win?

While our winless streak remains in tact, there was some good news today. After a long string of either giving horses away or selling for less than what we paid, Saint's Relic was claimed away today for more than what we paid. Accounting for the 3+ weeks of expenses, we managed a small profit. While I will never complain about that, I was expecting a better effort today and it would have been nice to at least cash a check in the race.

Shuffle up and deal

On the heels of the recently completed World Series of Poker main event, I thought it would be helpful to describe what I am thinking with the stable in terms of a marathon Texas Hold ‘Em tourney. Here is a quick recap of some of the hands we have played.

* We got off to a slow start and only won a couple of small pots (Leather N Lace, Fightin Hen).
* We were dealt a pair of Aces (Starlet Sky), but we failed to play the hand correctly and didn’t win as much as we could have.
* We had some good hands that when combined with a little luck in the community cards became very profitable for us as they were played to perfection (Lite Brigade, Go Go Diablo, Silver Peagus the first two times).
* Stayed on a nice roll while winning a couple small pots (Chief Magistrate, Stage Glitter).
* Overconfidence creeps in and we play a few hands when the odds were not in our favor (Unreal General, Jared’stemper, Carey’s Gold).
* After a few more bad beats, we went on tilt and played a number of hands we should have mucked (No Tolerance, Tiz Stormin, Halory’s Blush, Yanks Acomin, Silver Peagus the third time).

Many hands are not yet finished and we are awaiting the Turn and the River. Some are looking good (Dawn Raider, Art of Diplomacy, Uno Way Calle) while we are drawing dead in others (Thrill of Victory, Slapout).

While we may still have an ace up our sleeve (Tytus), we are at a crossroads in this tourney. We can either a) play conservative, limp in a few hands and hope to get lucky or b) get aggressive and push “all-in”. Option A may allow us to stick around a lot longer in hopes of outlasting the other players. However, the blinds may eventually consume our bankroll. Option B would speed things along and it definitely increases the chances of busting. This week of racing will go a long ways in determining what option we choose. With the entries we have on the board already and the few more I expect for the weekend, our bankroll could change significantly – all should be in spots where they could win and/or get claimed away from us.

For those who play hold ‘em, you can relate to this analogy. For others, I probably managed to do little more than waste your time.

Equine Exchange

While the action on the track will be slow this week (no races), I filled the void with some changes to the stable. First, we sold Classic Trouble a couple days ago. With the Remington meet closing soon and Bernell taking his stock to Tampa, the prospects for "Trouble" succeeding on the tough Tampa turf circuit were slim. It made sense to sell him to an owner who runs in Arizona where the turf racing is considerably easier. Second, we claimed one today - Wild Adventure. Bred in KY, this 3-year old, lightly raced filly comes to us with a lot of available conditions and room for improvement. While I was hoping she would run a little better today (she finished second), the addition of a female runner adds some needed diversity. The action on the track should pick up next week with as many as a handful of our runners scheduled to hit the entry box.

The first trip south to Tampa was made today. Dawn Raider, Darby Lee, and Tytus are on their way to an envious meteorological change of scenery.

Technical Analysis (continued)

A few weeks ago in this space, I put forth a theory about being at the bottom of a cycle of peaks and valleys. For those who subscribe to this technical analysis (i.e. charting), the belief is that the high/low points do not signal sharp turnarounds. Rather, the form meanders around the top for a while before beginning a gradual, subtle slide. Conversely, once the low is achieved, the form bounces off the bottom a while before rebounding. If I haven't lost you yet, I am trying to say that it feels like we are in the "bouncing off the bottom" stage. While the handful of races we had this week only produced a few minor checks, it was better then last month when we weren't cashing any checks and running near the back of the field. The critical question is can we survive long enough to see the form reversal? With opening day in Tampa coming 5 weeks from today, I would like to see some signs of improvement prior to year-end before deciding our next major move.

Another one off the books

Add Mooji's Sister to the list of horses we have given away. Her effort at Hoosier Park on Sunday did not exactly inspire us to bring her home so we left her behind in Indiana. There are a couple more on my hit list. Once we get rid of those, we will be left with a roster while short in numbers should be more cost efficient. If I can get the expenses under control, I will be a little more active in the claim box looking for runners that fit well with the Tampa conditions.

Up next: so far, a couple runners entered this week at Hawthorne (Slapout and Darby Lee). For Saturday, we'll be entering a couple in Chicago (Uno Way and Thrill) and there is a race for Classic Trouble in Oklahoma.