End of the Road

I reached an agreement yesterday to sell No Lip and Swift Progress. We got back what we paid for him so we ended up making a little $$ thanks to his recent win. The same cannot be said for No Lip - we only recived a fraction of what we paid for him. Disregard the entry notice for him on Wednesday - he was sold with the understanding that he would get a few months off to recuperate from a long, hard campaign this year that saw him race at 5 different tracks around the country.

Over the next few weeks, once all the Novemember expenses are paid for, I will calculate a final share price (~$4) and send out checks to all of the partners. Obviously, I wish the final price was higher, but the last couple years were challenging and at this time I thought it was best to get out with a decent amount of our original capital in tact.

I thank you all for your participation. For me, it was a realization of a goal to try my hand at this game and have some fun along the way. I just hope each of my partners enjoyed the ride enough to at least partially offset the financial loss.

It is now time for this amateur blogger to sign off one final time.

Thanks to all who came along for this journey.

-Web

Going out on top?

Swift Progress ran a very good race last night to win comfortably. SP does not have a big burst of speed – he is more of a grinder. The key with that type is to get them started early in hopes you can wear down the others and not get stopped like he did in his last race when others interfered with him in the stretch.

Before the race, I was watching online in my office with another WG partner and I mentioned to him that this very well could be our last race as a stable. It is still my plan to liquidate the stable prior to year-end and distribute the cash pro rata. That said, I would like to get a “fair” price for SP and No Lip. Hopefully, yesterday’s race will help fetch that price I am looking for. If I can’t sell them, then it will be on to a yet to be determined “Plan B”.

If this was indeed our last race, it will be nice to go out on a high note.

Baby Steps

From conversations with the trainer, I was expecting improved efforts from our 2 runners yesterday in their second races over the Hawthorne strip. Improvement was achieved albeit in small increments.

Swift Progress deserved a better fate but had to settle for being DQ’d into 4th place after being severely compromised by other runners in the stretch. There is no way to know for sure how we would have finished with a clean trip, but I think he would have been no worse than third. Under our revised expense model, the difference between 3rd and 4th means losing a little money this month on him rather than breaking even.

We were able to break even this month on No Lip after his speed lasted much longer into the stretch and he hung on for third. Signs are encouraging that after leaving Canterbury in pretty rough shape physically, he is starting to come around a little and should be more fit for his next outing.

Update

As of this morning, it does look like there will be a couple scratches and the race we were looking at next week for No Lip did not fill. Therefore, we will go ahead and put him in the staring gate and hope for the best today.

One in for sure

We have entered each horse for a race this weekend, but we will likely have just one runner. No Lip drew in as the 2nd "Also Eligible" meaning there would need to be 2 scratches before we got to run. Even then, he would be stuck on the far outside post position. Rather, we will try to find a race for him somehwere next week.

Third time was the charm for Swift Progress - after 2 overfills, we finally drew into the field on Sunday. Let's hope the month off and change of scenery does him some good.

3Q11 Summary

It was not a good quarter for the stable’s financials. We had very limited success on the track and as the Canterbury meet came to a close, the decision was made to cut the cord on a few of the horses and realize some losses. The prospects for 4Q11 don’t look much brighter as the first few days of entries at Hawthorne would suggest that the competition in Chicago will be much harder than originally thought. For example, we tried entering Swift Progress in a race that was barely filling with enough entries during their Spring meet that had 34 entries this week. Translation: we likely won’t catch any weak fields to run in and we will have to rely on drawing into the races as they come up.

The best plan right now is to run each horse at the lowest possible levels in hopes of hitting the board enough to simply offset their expenses. Ideally, they will get claimed away from us and we can proceed with winding down the stable and cashing everyone out. As of 9/30, I calculated a share value of $4.35. Approximately 85% of this valuation is represented by cash. So as I said earlier, if we can come close to breaking even on the cash flow, we should be able to liquidate at or near that share valuation prior to year-end.

The Bottom Line

The true gain/loss of a horse owned cannot be measured until their run is over. With the 3 sales over the weekend, I took a quick look at how we fared on the horses I purchased specifically to run at CBY over the summer. We profited about $3k on Ready to Thrill and lost about $4k and $3k on Afleetmovingangel and Blumin Won, respectively. Thus, our “entertainment” cost for watching them run in person was roughly $4k total.

My goal with these 3 was to simply break even. If we could have won just one more race, that goal would have been met. Alternatively, if I could have sold each of them for $1k more, we would have ended up ok. However, selling them at that price proved to be more difficult than asking Joe Mauer to play with the sniffles.

Cut Bait, Move On

After an encouraging start to the CBY season, the last few weeks have been a grind. I had made the decision earlier in the week that there were only 2 horses I wanted to still own after the meet (No Lip and Swift Progress). Selling the others proved to be more difficult than I thought. Usually you find some willing parties moving on to other circuits, but I had no such luck and I settled for the best offer I could find ($1k each). More importantly, with transport costs and other expenses looming, it was the deal that made the most fiscal sense.

The other 2 will move on to Chicago and run at the lower levels there with the thought that we could move to an all cash position by the end of the year which will provide a good opprtunity for those wanting to cash out their shares.

Thus we bid adieu to Shakopee in the hopes greener pastures lie ahead elsewhere.

Who Do you believe?

The trainer said we got a bad ride. The jockey says the horse never picked up the bit. I personally thought the race was just too long. A variety of reasons for why No Lip came up about 15 feet short on Sunday. However, that 15 feet represented the difference between 1st and 5th and a paltry $90 check. At least Blumin Won and Swift Progress picked up more meaningful checks for their second place efforts over the weekend.

Upcoming races: Angel is all set to run Friday night. On the other hand, barring a bunch of rain, we will scratch Ready to Thrill if an easier spot becomes available over the weekend. We have entered him at least a half dozen times over the last week and took this spot mainly out of frustration and the hope that rain could force the race off the turf.

Upon Further Review

While driving home last night, I realized I forgot the most recent female jockey in our employ. So rather than jeopardizing my shot at the WG HOF, I might as well give the answers to my trivia question:

1) Helen Vanek (Leather N Lace twice @ Tampa)
2) Tammy Piemerini (Chaffed Lips @ Tampa)
3) Helen King (Iron Boy @ Prairie Meadows)
4) Inez Karlsson (Art of Diplomacy @ Hawthorne)
5) Inez Karlsson (Oculuna @ Arlington)

I think that covers all of them. On that same drive, I was putting the list of HOF members together in my head and have come up with the following categories:

Horses (no particular order): Tytus, Silver Peagus, Lite Brigade, Go Go Diablo, Stumbling Block, Starlet Sky, Iron Boy, Dawn Raider, Chief Magistrate, and Leather N Lace.

These members are not necessarily the fastest or highest earners, but they all occupy a special place in the stable for various reasons.

Jockeys: Daniel Centeno and Paul Nolan

Centeno was an automatic first ballot and Nolan was added by the Veterans Committee.

Trainer: Jamie Ness (*)

Ness' plaque needs an (*) because we'll never know for sure what he was feeding the horses to make them run so well, but we cannot ignore the impressive stats he piled up.

Investor/Partner: Mark Kane

While he was not an original member and he isn't the largest investor, Mark's contributions to the stable are numerous. He embodies the spirit of what this investment is supposed to be (he even has the ink on his arm to prove it). He attends all of the races, has traveled across the country to some of these races, and he couldn't care less about his ROI. No one has given our horses more treats in the barn or sponsered more barn tours. He has outfitted a number of folks in WG gear and taken in a couple strays when their racing days were over. Mark is always the first in line outside the winners circle to purchase a beverage for those in attendance. Whenever the business/admin burden annoys me and I think about getting out, he is the one I think about when I buy another horse in hopes of landing the "big one". He plays the lottery and says when he wins, we'll go on a shopping spree.

If that resume doesn't warrant the HOF, there should be no such honor. So the next time you see Mark, give him a nod of appreciation.

Changes / WG Trivia

Swift Progress makes his debut for us on Thursday night. The horse will have a lot on his mind as he deals with a number of changes we are throwing at him. He will try grass and a 2-turn race for the first time; we’re adding blinkers, bumping him up in class and putting a new jockey on his back after spending a few weeks in a new stall. Regardless of how he runs, we probably won’t have a real good idea which of those changes will make the most difference. A lot will depend on the feedback from the new jockey (Lori Keith) – another debut for us. I have personally known Lori for a few years but have never had the opportunity to ride her (wink).

We have had 365 starts as a stable and only had female jockeys on 3 other occasions. Send me an e-mail if you think you know the others. Here are a few hints: you’ll need to go back a few years, the rides were not at Canterbury and one of the jocks rode 2 different horses at 2 different tracks under different last names. Anyone who can tell me the names of the 2 jockeys/3 horses will get an immediate induction into the WG Hall of Fame. It has been a while since we opened the doors to the WG HOF (Stumbling Block was the most recent inductee), so I look forward to hearing any guesses.

Each race was better

The races this weekend pretty much played out like I thought. Angel's race was too rough, Thrill's race was too short and the outside post was a little too much to overcome for No Lip. The results were better with each passing race. We went from ugly to encouraging. I thought No Lip ran too good to lose. The hope is that each of these runners gets one more chance this meet. As it looks now, our next race could be a week from next Thursday when we will be entering Swift Progress a his debut for us.

Take what you can get

It’s getting late in the season at Canterbury and the horse population is dwindling. As such, you can’t get too choosy about the races you enter. None of the 3 races we entered for this weekend are ideal.

The race for Angel came up a little tougher than I thought. That combined with the fact that she is not 100% physically, we may end up scratching out of the race on Saturday morning. Stay tuned to the blog and I will try to post something as soon as possible. For Thrill, we tried to get a race going long, but none of those filled unless we wanted to step up in class. For No Lip, I would have preferred a little more time between races, but this race seems to fit well. Unfortunately, we drew an outside post in a large field.

We’ll hope for the best.

New Business Model

The racing action for the stable was a little light this weekend (3rd place run by Blumin Won), so it gave me a chance to work on some administrative duties. Specifically, I re-negotiated the monthly expenses we pay. The arrangement I was looking for was to shift the mix of fixed/variable costs. If the horses run well, the "commission" costs go up, but if they don't, we'll pay a lot less in fixed expenses. Essentially, it takes a little off the top but raises the floor significantly in a worse-case scenario.

This expense mix gave me the motivation to claim another horse todayfor $5k - a 3 year-old gelding named Swift Progress. He ran an ok 4th today in his 3rd lifetime start. Even with the addition to the stable, the overall fixed costs will be much less than our 4-horse stable under the old expense model. The lower fixed costs will also give us the opportunity to run races during the fall at a number of tracks in the midwest while basing the stable in Illinois and shipping to a handful of tracks within driving distance.

Time will tell if this new model will prove profitable, but I wanted to give it a shot and will re-evaluate the effectivness in a few months.

Mission Accomplished

I have stated numerous times that it is tough to make money racing at Canterbury. Therefore, my goal this year was to simply have fun, win a few races and not get spanked financially. With the couple winners of late, it looks like we will be ok assuming we can unload some of the current stock within the next month. The last 3 horses I bought were strictly for racing at Canterbury. I don’t think any of these can be too successful elsewhere.

It has worked out well that for the last couple of photos, we had a good turnout in the circle and it made for enjoyable evenings. It was especially gratifying last week when No Lip won to re-connect with some family members of one of the founding partners of WG. I have to keep reminding myself that it is nights like Thursday that help offset some of the frustration/embarrassment I go through when a horse runs up the track.

As I write this, I cannot predict what will happen after Canterbury this year. I have a few thoughts rattling around my head, but nothing firm at this point. For now, I will enjoy the next 5 weeks of racing here and we just may be able to squeak out another photo or two.

High Mileage

When we bought No Lip 8 months ago, he was in Lafayette, La. We brought him to New Orleans for a few races then shipped him to Louisville. From there he made a couple round trips to Shelbyville, IN. Then we sent him back to Lafayette for a race. Back to Louisville and subsequently another race in Shelbyville. That was the end of the road with Tom so we hitched a ride for him to St. Louis. After a week or so there, he was back on a van headed to Shakopee, MN. After a tour of the Midwest, he is set to make his CBY debut tonight.

His performance thus far should be considered a failure given the price we paid. However, IF he were able to win tonight, the purse money would be enough to put the YTD cash flow for the stable in the black. Ultimately, that is the metric I pay the most attention to. Whether it is for a race, a month, a quarter, or for the year if the stable can just balance the inflows/outflows, I will be happy. Given the entertainment value the investment has to offer those wanting to partake, a breakeven scenario is just fine with me.

Angel Sandwich

2 bad races this weekend sandwiched around a good effort from Angel. All 3 were in races that were winnable. The one obvious difference was Angel had the track’s leading jockey in the saddle which definitely helped matters. However, the other 2 should have run better regardless of who was riding them. The other positive from the races is that we should now receive some bonus payments set up for horses whom had races cancelled during the government shutdown. The requirement was that their next race after the shutdown had to be at CBY. Those payments along with earnings from No Lip and Angel will make July a decent month financially.

We have one more shot this month on Thursday with No Lip. While he does face a field that is arguably the softest since his maiden win, the trainer switch from a “Top 10” guy to someone trying to make his mark in this game leaves me realistic about his chances.

Back in the Saddle

It is finally over. In the grand scheme of things, 3 weeks is a relatively short amount of time. However, given the uncertainty involved and the frustration over alternative plans not working out for one reason or another, the shutdown will have a lasting effect. It also represents the longest time I have gone without betting on a horse race in at least 20 years. The worst part is, we didn’t gain anything - either as residents of this state or as racing fans. No one is happy with the solution and the only thing we can do is not vote for any incumbents in the next election. Consider this my small grassroots effort to get some measure of satisfaction. Enough of the political soapbox.

As for the racing action, we have entered races that are very winnable on Friday night. Both Thrill and Angel are at or below prices that we paid for them. As such, they should be able to compete or at the very least hit the board which will help pay the bills that have continued to accumulate. If anyone is interested in seeing No Lip in person, he will be shipped up here on Friday and pointed to a race sometime next week.

Acceptance

Not to sound overly dramatic about the govt. shutdown, but I have come to terms with the likelihood that the remainder of the Canterbury meet will soon be canceled. As textbooks would suggest, this follows stages of anger and denial. That said, we are making plans to relocate the stable – most likely scenario is St. Louis. From there, we’ll be within shipping distance to a handful of tracks including those in Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. It is a sad reality, but it is one that I now accept and will try to make the best of. Additionally, on Monday night, we’ll be picking up No Lip from Tom in Indiana and transfer him to Kenny’s barn thus concluding our 2+ year relationship. It was not a good move financially to go with Tom, but I don’t regret taking a swing with him in hopes of landing the “big one”. For now, it makes sense to go with a more economically-feasible model by keeping the horses we have with Kenny and running at lesser-quality tracks. Watch out Omaha – here we come.

Note: all this changes if by some chance a local resolution comes about within the next week or so.

Limbo (continued)

I have no idea when our next race will be. Each day that passes, I become more convinced that the entire meet will be lost at Canterbury. That really puts us in a bind since the last 3 purchases I made were with the specific intent to run and be competitive here. Even if we were allowed to run elsewhere (which currently we are not), I'm not sure we would be all that competitive thus making the expense of shipping unattractive.

Financially, No Lip helped the cause last night with an effort that should cover about a month's worth of expenses for the entire barn. That check along with the pledge from Canterbury Park to compensate horses who were set to run on days that have been lost, will help stabilize things a bit.

Limbo

Day 2 of the government shutdown and we await a judge's ruling for whether or not Canterbury can operate in the interim since they do not rely on any state funding. As we wait, you may see some entries pop up for our horses at Prairie Meadows as a backup plan. I will re-evaluate the situation each day and keep fingers crossed that we will be able to race again soon. Not affected by any of this, we should see an entry for No Lip next week in Indiana.

The quarterly calculation of WG shares yielded an evaluation of $6.75 per share. The cash flow was pretty much flat for the quarter as any purse earnings were used to claim Angel and Blumin Won.

Some Progress

It seems that lately it has been feast or famine for us. We have won a couple races with Thrill, but the rest of the races have been much less productive. Our first race of the weekend followed that pattern when Angel dropped far back at the start and ran on late but it was simply not enough to hit the board. She galloped out well in front of the field, but they don't give out any money to who wins the gallop out. Considering we brought him back on very short rest, I was pleased with the race from Blumin Won today. This time, a late rally was enoough to get into 3rd place and cash a decent check thus breaking our string of win or "out of the money".

Thrill comes back again of Friday (possibly Thursday if government shutdown appears likely). I would like to give him another week of rest, but the uncertainty pretty much forces him into this spot. No Lip should be pointed towards a race for the middle of next week at Indiana Downs.

Jockey Roulette

The way I conduct myself, a handshake and/or my word means something. The same cannot be said about many of the folks you come in contact with at the race track. We were once again surprised in the entry box when we thought Paul or Dean were lined up to ride Angel in her race on Friday. Both took other mounts and we ended up with a jock who is 1 for 52 this year. Not a great situation – we tried entering another race today for Sunday, but it did not fill. We may try to do the same on Saturday (enter for next Thursday), so it is possible that we will scratch Angel if a better race becomes available.

We did get a race for Blumin Won on Sunday. We gave the mount to a kid who has ridden him the last couple races and asked for the ride back. At this point, my loyalty to Paul is no longer an issue and I want to use jockeys who want to ride our horses.

A Matter of Perspective

On the surface, it would appear that our 2 races last week were similarly disappointing. While it is true that I am this close (imagine my thumb and index finger apart an inch apart) to throwing in the towel on No Lip, there are reasons to be optimistic about Ready to Thrill’s next race. His race on Friday looked better in person than it did on paper. He liked the turf, finished the race with some energy and will appreciate a longer distance next time if we bring him back against the same bunch in a few weeks.

The couple races we entered Angel in this weekend did not fill which means the next spots we enter may not be ideal but she needs a race and should get one within the next week or so. I am contemplating what to do with Blumin Won. There is a race I like this weekend, but it would be a little quick to come back (9 days since our claim). However, the next race I like for him isn’t until after the potential government shutdown/track closure.

Cornhusker Pride

This will be probably be the first and last time I write these words - we claimed a horse bred in Nebraska. Blumin Won is a 6-year old gelding born and raised in the Cornhusker state. He ran second last night to the odds-on favorite and at the minumin should be competitive back in the same race ($5k, N4L). However, I think his better races may come on the turf and we could be able to compete at the $7500 level if he proves to be "reasonably" healthy. The air quotes are appropriate here because no horses available for the price we paid ($5k) are what I would deem healthy. This one in particular had a long layoff in the last couple years that would suggest he had a significant injury at some point. The hope is that he has recovered enough to give us a few races and allow us at least a chance to break even.

Nowhere to Run?

The result of last night’s race was not a surprise (see earlier post). However, we now have to decide what to do with No Lip. Previously, the plan was to bring him up to Minnesota. However, as the potential for a government shutdown looms, there is no guarantee Canterbury will race beyond July 1st. The last thing I want to do is ship a horse up here and sit on the sidelines when we can drop him to the bottom of the claiming ladder and race again in a few weeks somewhere in Indiana/Kentucky.

Unfortunately, the prospects for our next race are not much brighter. When I bought Ready to Thrill as a maiden, I knew that each win meant the subsequent competition would be harder as he lost his conditions. Once again, we are taking a shot on the turf when a softer spot would be available on the dirt. For multiple reasons, I want to see what this guy can do on the grass and this happens to be the easiest entry point on the lawn at this stage. Ironically, if the race stays on the grass, it looks like it will be very competitive and Thrill would have to continue improving in order to hit the board. That said, I am curious to see how he fares against this group knowing that for his next race we could drop down a couple notches and go back to the dirt (assuming there is still racing at Canterbury in a few weeks).

Miscalculation

In order to save a few bucks on the shipping cost, I had to make the call yesterday whether or not to put No Lip on a van to Louisiana before entering him in the race for next Wednesday. Given the quality I have seen show up in this condition at this track (Evangeline), I thought he would fit well. Unfortunately, a quick look at the competitors would suggest he is once again in a little over his head. At this point, it's too late to turn around so we'll have to make the best of it and hope he can at least hit the board and pay for his jock fee and shipping costs. Who knows, maybe the change of scenery will do him some good and he will pleasantly surprise us - I have seen longer shots come in.

Class Matters

A question handicappers often have to decipher is which is the better horse?: the slowest horse in a good race or the fastest horse in a weak race. More often than not it seems that the answer usually is that class matters. That is, horses trying to climb the ladder are less successful than those dropping looking for a little class relief.

That was more or less my take for Angel's race on Saturday. She didn't run poorly at all. After the top 2 finishers, there was a gap back to the next 3 who finished a length apart from one another. Unfortunately for us, we were on the tail end of that six or so feet and the difference amounted to $1,600 of purse money (difference between 3rd and 5th).

In retrospect, it was a little ambitious for us to think she could make such a big leap. I say that not with any regret rather with some post-race clarity. We'll give her the requisite couple weeks or so to recover and look for a more reasonable spot next time. The next race for the stable should be No Lip - as of now, we are still leaning towards a race in mid-June down at Evangeline Downs.

Plan B

I was surprised to get a call on Wednesday morning telling me that Paul was unable to ride Afleetmovinangel because he had committed elsewhere. I’ll be discussing this with his agent. However, if we had to “settle” for another jockey, the defending champ and current meet’s leader is a good backup plan. We have had mixed results with Dean in the past, but no jockey has won more races in the last few years at Canterbury.

As for the race itself, the jump from $5k N2L to allowance is quite aggressive. We have not had Angel long enough to have a real good idea for how she will run, but she should be ok on the turf and a turn of foot similar to what she showed in her last race could give her a fighting chance at the end. There doesn’t appear to be any “up and comers” in this race and a couple are coming off long layoffs, so this is a good spot to take a crack at getting a piece of a good purse (by Canterbury standards). If she gets soundly defeated, we will have scratched that itch and can return to conditioned claimers.

As for No Lip, I did hear from Tom a couple days ago. One option being considered is to return to Louisiana in a couple weeks to race against state-bred N2L allowance foes at Evangeline Downs.

What's in a name?

Ready to Thrill lived up to his name and gave at least 50 of us in attendance a thrill on Sunday by winning our return race at Canterbury. Paul gave him a perfect ride and saved just enough energy to score the victory. Afterwards, we all piled into the winner's circle for a long-awaited photo. We'll give him a few weeks to recover and look for another race in mid to late June.

Angel should be ready for her WG debut next weekend and we will try to find a race for her that makes sense. While I have not spoken with Tom for a few days, I would suspect No Lip will be racing again soon.

Return to Canterbury

It has been almost 2 years since our last race at Canterbury. Sunday will mark the return of the blue, black and gold silks at my home track. While it is not the most economically viable place to run and management continues to make many questionable decisions, it is still a special place for me. It is a facility that houses over 2 decades of memories for me dating back to times when I had to have my friend's dad place my bets.

As for the race itself, it will be Ready to Thrill's first time against winners. A quick look at the competitors says we should compete and if his odds stay at or near his morning line (8-1), it would be worth the gamble. While I do want to see what he does on the turf, I wouldn't complain if the race was rained off. Hope to see some of the locally based partners on Sunday.

An Angel In The Barn

On opening night at Canterbury, we made the first claim of the season. We bought the winner of race 3 - a 4 year old filly named Afleetmovinangel. Friday night's win was the second of her career so we have a few conditions to run through.

"Angel" is a distant relative of one of my favorite horses ever to run an Canterbury - Afleet Angel and she is the daughter of Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner - Afleet Alex. For those with access to Saturday's Star Tribune, her picture is plastered on the back page of the Sports section.

Ready to Thrill is ready for a race - hopefully, we find a race for him next weekend.

One mystery solved

It was early evening on Tuesday and I had two mysteries on my mind. What to do with No Lip and where was my missing sock after folding a load of laundry? It took about 20 minutes, but after searching every article of clothing, there it was clinging to a pair of boxer shorts.

I only wish the other mystery was as easily solved. For the record, it wasn't a terrible race, but it was not good enough to warrant keeping him there. I was all set to ask Tom to put him on a van and ship him up to Canterbury. However, he once again offered to waive his training fees until his next race. That race will come in a few weeks and right now the thought is to get him back on the grass somewhere and possibly look at going two turns again. Either way, the prospect of no fees was better than the reduced fees up here.

Odds n' ends

We came close to buying a horse this weekend. An agreement was in place, but he did not pass the final vet inspection.

Ready to Thrill arrived in MN last week. He is still on schedule to enter a race at CBY on May 27th.

No Lip gets what could be his last try in Indiana/Kentucky on Tuesday. If he does not run reasonably well, I can’t justify keeping him with Tom. We can ship him up here and run for half the purses and about 40% less expense. The unfortunate part of that scenario is that it would likely sever our ties with Tom and subsequently make it that much harder to re-enter the higher-end market.

No longer a Maiden

One of the advantages of buying a cheap horse is the potential of it paying for itself in a relatively short amount of time. We managed to do just that in one race with Ready to Thrill on Friday night. While I was watching the race in a hotel lobby in Kansas City utilizing a less than powerful WiFi connection on my IPad, I was able to see enough to get the general idea that he ran a pretty good race. Going forward, the hope is that he will stay sound enough throughout the summer up at Canterbury to at least pay for his upkeep expenses. A quick look at the condition book suggests that his first race up here could come on May 27th.

Someone has to win

Ready to Thrill makes his debut for us on Friday night. When I glanced at the competition, my first thought was “this is an ugly bunch”. However, I then realized that an objective observer would include us in that group as well. This should be similar to the runners we face up here at Canterbury, but the purse at Indiana is 2x as much, so I felt it was a good shot to take even though he is coming back a little quick (15 days).

My opinion on the race brings to mind one of my favorite sayings about being eaten by a bear. You don’t need to be able outrun a bear, you just need to run faster than the guy next to you. With a field of 6 low-level runners, I like our chances to recoup a decent share if not all of the money we spent on him.

"Thud"

When deciding what to blog about for this last race, I had a bunch of excuses in mind. Fact is, I didn't like the sound of any of them, so I will spare you the BS and call it what it was - a clunker. Back to square one with this one, but it is looking more likely that he will be spending his summer up here at Canterbury.

Initial reports on Ready to Thrill are "fair". He is going to the track fine, but his appetite is not where we would like it to be. That could just simply be a reaction to the new surroundings and it may take him a while to settle in.

Foreign Territory

On Wednesday night, No Lip will venture outside his home state (Louisiana) for the first time in his career. He also will be racing against older horses for the first time and returning to the dirt on a track he has never seen. Since he is facing older and hasn't won a race for a while, he will get to tack a little less weight than some others in the field. This will be a good test for him - if he does not fare well against this bunch, we will likely consider sending him up to Canterbury to face much lighter competition. On the topic of CBY, we just bought a horse that we will eventually see up here. His name is Ready to Thrill - he is a 3 year old maiden bred in KY who has been running this year at Oaklawn Park. While winless in 9 starts, he has come close a couple times and should fit well in the lower claiming ranks at CBY. The initial plan is to run him once in Indiana and then bring him up here in the middle of May.

Quarter-End Update

Just to follow up my previous post, the quarter-end share price was $6.73. The cash flow was positive for the quarter, and I assigned a reasonable value for No Lip based on what Tom thought we could sell him for if we so desired. Currently, No Lip is in training at Churchill Downs and we are looking at a race for him next week at Indiana Downs. While it is not for the reason we would hope for, we will have a 3-year old colt on the hallowed grounds of Churchill in training on the first Saturday in May. He will have a front row seat for all of the action in a few weeks.

A Passing Grade

I had high expectations for No Lip when the Fair Grounds meet began. He fell short of the monetary goal I set for him, but overall I would grade his meet a “C+”. For the 3 months ended 3/31, he started 4 times and had gross earnings a little over $31k. After expenses, the operating profit was about $13k. While that number only chips away at our purchase price, I was encouraged enough by his last couple races to move forward with him.

I thought he ran a good race yesterday. As the chart caller indicated, he got a little hung up on the turn and the jock mentioned after the race that it took a while to get him going again. He might not have won the race since the winner was so impressive, but the trouble likely cost us second place and about $4k in purse money. The winner’s time was a full half-second faster than an open allowance race for older horses an hour later going the same distance on the turf. Bottom line, he ran a good race while sprinting for the first time.

The plan now is to let Tom take him north to Louisville next week and look for an allowance race at the end of April at Indiana Downs (ID). While the purses are very good at ID ($37k for first level allowance), the competition is moderate since their meet coincides with nearby Churchill Downs. If all else fails, we can bring him up to Canterbury in June to run against real weak competition and low purse money ($16k for comparable allowance race).

Speaking of Canterbury, I have been in contact with a couple different trainers to look for some cheap horses to bring up here. I will also take the money we have at the FG and move it to Keeneland in hopes of finding something reasonably priced there that could eventually come up here for the summer months.

A Handicapping Puzzle

It looks like a well-matched field of 7 facing No Lip on Monday. Unlike our last race where I knew going in we were up against it, this group offers a great opportunity for our colt to race against similar competition. Each of the 7 have had some good efforts, but all have some question marks. Only 3 of the 7 have raced on the grass, which should help our chances. However, all of the others have won sprint races. There are some horses coming off long layoffs and others who raced just last week - I like our 23-day break coming into the race.

No Lip has been training well and the biggest question will be whether or not he can break quick enough to keep up with the pace which will be much faster in the early stages than what he is used to. As mentioned earlier, our "hope" is that he will be able to finsh with more energy than what he has in his route efforts. My final take on the race is that if the rail horse (Very Possebull) breaks sharp and takes to the grass, the rest of us will be running for 2nd place. If not, we have as good a shot as any to get our picture taken.

Regardless of outcome, this will be his final race in New Orleans this season as their meet comes to a close. As such, we will have a decision to make after the race about what to do with him. Turf sprinting is a unique question that I am anxious to answer. I have seen many a horse look "so-so" running other races become very successful turf sprinters. That is not a prediction - just a hopeful observation.

Swing and a miss

As I mentioned in a previous post, it was clear that No Lip was overmatched in Saturday's race. The field consisted of many horses who had won multiple races and a handful who had won stakes races. It was a lot to ask for a 1-win horse, but we wanted to "swing for the fences". With a couple hundreds yards to go, he was right there with the lead group of horses. However, he got a little tired, bumped another horse, and then was outkicked to the wire by some quality horses. The final margin (5.5 lengths) was respectable, but the 7th place finish doesn't put any money in the bank. It may end up (beyer number wise) the best race he has run so far.

After discussing the race with Tom, our initial thought is to try a sprint race next - he just does not seem to have that extra spurt needed to finish longer races. If he comes out of the race in good condition and continues to train forwardly, we will look for a first-level allowance race near the end of the Fair Grounds meet. Postive note: none of the 6 horses who finished ahead of him yesterday would be eligible to run against him in a 1/X race.

Continuing the topic of future plans - I just received the first condition book for this year's meet at Canterbury. Despite what it looks like here with over 6+ feet of snow on the ground, we are a little over 2 months away from opening day. The book looks much different than it has in years past. The quality/purse structure is even lower. Despite that, I do want to try to find a couple horses to run up here so we have something to watch. So my focus will soon shift to finding some cheap horses and a trainer that would make some sense for us.

Watching an old friend

Stumbling Block makes his return to the races on Saturday for his new owners (race 10 on Saturday at Tampa). “Block” still holds a special place in the WG record books so I will be watching him and hoping the old guy stills enjoys making left turns despite my feelings for the new owners.

Update on the weather in New Orleans – overnight rain caused Friday’s turf races to be moved to the main track. However, all indications are that a warm/sunny/breezy day today combined with similar weather on Saturday should ensure our race stays on the grass.

Good luck to No Lip.!!

Longshot's chance

It's safe to say that No Lip will be one of the longest shots on the board when the gate pops on Saturday (my guess would be at least 30-1). On paper, we don’t belong in this group. Thankfully, the race is scheduled to be run on grass, not paper. In our case, the turf could be just the equalizer we need. Of the 10 entries, only 2 (including us) have ever tried the turf. Additionally, we have the highest Tomlinson rating (a metric used to predict a horse’s ability to run on various surfaces based on their genetics) for turf in the field.

The gap between us and the rest of the field is wide, but if we can move forward on the turf and the others regress a bit, that might be enough to put us in the mix. I will be more concerned about how we finish than where we finish. If he is closing ground and extending his stride at the end of the race, I would be content with a middle of the pack position if it meant being within a couple lengths behind the winner. That type of race would at least give us a direction of where to go next.

So-So

4th Place – middle of the pack. It was not as bad as No Lip’s debut for us a couple months ago, but it also was not the momentum-building effort we were hoping for off his win last month. At this point, there are more questions than answers. The most disturbing part of yesterday’s race is that he got what could be described as the “perfect trip” yet could not finish in the lane. At least the 4th place yielded a check big enough to pay for a few weeks of expenses.

Yesterday’s race was billed as a “prep” for a stakes race in 3 weeks on the grass. After talking with Tom after the race, it is still our plan to move forward in that direction – assuming he trains well enough leading into the race. We both agreed that we would like to see him run on the turf before making any drastic decisions. It just so happens that at this stage of his career, there are not a lot of options to do this other than taking on the stakes competition.

Happy Anniversary

I was reminded earlier today that our first victory came exactly 5 years ago (Leather N Lace). Coincidentally, as I was putting No Lip’s winner’s photo in my album over the weekend, I reflected back on some of the 100+ photos. A trip down memory lane if you will.

I was drawn to the participants in the photos. Sadly, a few of those who joined us in the circle have passed away. Others are friends who I don’t keep in touch with as much as I would like. For most of us, the years have simply passed with a few more gray hairs (or less hair in many cases) and a few extra pounds. Lastly, I observed how my nieces have evolved from pre-teens into young ladies.

I surely miss the days when dozens piled into the photo on a warm summer night at Canterbury. I don’t think we’ll see those days again anytime soon, but I’ll always have the photos.
Enough of the mush – we have another race to look forward to this weekend as No Lip attempts to put our stable on the map again at the Fair Grounds. I have not looked closely at the competition yet, but we did draw a good post and the jockey took the mount back – both positive signs. There is a $100k stakes race that same night at another track – my hope is that many of the more accomplished peers will go for the higher purse and give is a shot to compete for the $50k at the FG. The race is scheduled for the grass, but there is mid-week rain slated for New Orleans. I would like to see what he can do on the green. The worst case scenario would be a soft turf course that may not be safe for the runners.

Quick Update

Not much news to report this week. Tom indicated that No Lip came out of his race in good order last week (winner’s circle photo has been added to blog). As of now, the next logical race at Fair Grounds looks like it will be Feb. 5th – an allowance race on turf. Tom also mentioned that he would keep an eye on the condition book at Delta Downs (another track in LA) for any races that might also make sense. Either way, he should be good to go in a couple weeks.

Calling an audible

When Tom and I spoke early in the day, it was not our plan to have No Lip on the lead early. After watching the 1st 3 races, Tom had noticed that there was a definite track bias to speed on the rail. So when he called me 20 minutes before the race, we agreed that the instructions to the Jock would be to do what he could to secure the rail early.

While those instructions could have cost us the race by asking the horse to do something he wouldn’t want to do, the strategy was likely a major reason why he won the race today. The bias might make the race look better than what it would otherwise, but given our long drought between trips to the winners circle, I am not going to find any fault with today’s win. If anything, it allows me to breathe a huge sigh of relief.

The win doesn’t assure any future success since he will have to step up his level of competition. However, it will at least buy us time to figure out whether or not he can turn into something “special’.

Last but not least, I will finally be able to at least partially get rid of the sour taste left behind from his first race. Here’s hoping his race today is a better indication of what we can expect.

Managing Expectations

Tom called me this morning to chat about the upcoming race for No Lip. He said about the only thing he has done differently this time around is back off his training a little bit. If you recall, about a week before his last race, he had a very quick 6 furlong workout that may have had something to do with his poor performance. That is not likely, but he really has no other reason to change anything else in his routine. Other than that, he continues to train well and in Tom’s words “looks better physically than any of the other horses with him on the track at the same time in the morning”. He added that while he thinks he can run well, he is also “nervous”.

From my perspective, I can only go off what I saw with my own eyes. Last time, I expected him to win. For this race, while I hope he can win, I will expect to finish last. That way, I cannot be disappointed. Bet at your own risk!

Trend or Mirage?

No Lip is scheduled to race on Friday (race 4) against many of the same competitors that beat him last time. If he runs another clunker, the obvious conclusion will be that his last race was an indcication of what we can expect. He drew the inside post and faces a total of 8 foes, so we can eliminate "wide trip" from the excuse list.

If he wins, we move forward with him. If he does not run well, then I'll likely start the process of finding him a new home.

For those of you looking to place a wager, if he floats up to 8-1 or better, the risk-reward makes it worth throwing a couple dollars at.

No luck in the box

We entered No Lip in a race for Monday, but so did 23 other owners and we were not lucky enough to draw one of the 10 starting spots. They did write back a race on the dirt for Thursday and we will enter that one. I was looking forward to seeing what he could do on the turf, but that will have to wait for another day if we go forward with him after his next race.

A couple partners took the option offered last month and cashed out. So the rest of us remaining picked up a little extra % of the ownership.