Swing and a miss

As I mentioned in a previous post, it was clear that No Lip was overmatched in Saturday's race. The field consisted of many horses who had won multiple races and a handful who had won stakes races. It was a lot to ask for a 1-win horse, but we wanted to "swing for the fences". With a couple hundreds yards to go, he was right there with the lead group of horses. However, he got a little tired, bumped another horse, and then was outkicked to the wire by some quality horses. The final margin (5.5 lengths) was respectable, but the 7th place finish doesn't put any money in the bank. It may end up (beyer number wise) the best race he has run so far.

After discussing the race with Tom, our initial thought is to try a sprint race next - he just does not seem to have that extra spurt needed to finish longer races. If he comes out of the race in good condition and continues to train forwardly, we will look for a first-level allowance race near the end of the Fair Grounds meet. Postive note: none of the 6 horses who finished ahead of him yesterday would be eligible to run against him in a 1/X race.

Continuing the topic of future plans - I just received the first condition book for this year's meet at Canterbury. Despite what it looks like here with over 6+ feet of snow on the ground, we are a little over 2 months away from opening day. The book looks much different than it has in years past. The quality/purse structure is even lower. Despite that, I do want to try to find a couple horses to run up here so we have something to watch. So my focus will soon shift to finding some cheap horses and a trainer that would make some sense for us.

Watching an old friend

Stumbling Block makes his return to the races on Saturday for his new owners (race 10 on Saturday at Tampa). “Block” still holds a special place in the WG record books so I will be watching him and hoping the old guy stills enjoys making left turns despite my feelings for the new owners.

Update on the weather in New Orleans – overnight rain caused Friday’s turf races to be moved to the main track. However, all indications are that a warm/sunny/breezy day today combined with similar weather on Saturday should ensure our race stays on the grass.

Good luck to No Lip.!!

Longshot's chance

It's safe to say that No Lip will be one of the longest shots on the board when the gate pops on Saturday (my guess would be at least 30-1). On paper, we don’t belong in this group. Thankfully, the race is scheduled to be run on grass, not paper. In our case, the turf could be just the equalizer we need. Of the 10 entries, only 2 (including us) have ever tried the turf. Additionally, we have the highest Tomlinson rating (a metric used to predict a horse’s ability to run on various surfaces based on their genetics) for turf in the field.

The gap between us and the rest of the field is wide, but if we can move forward on the turf and the others regress a bit, that might be enough to put us in the mix. I will be more concerned about how we finish than where we finish. If he is closing ground and extending his stride at the end of the race, I would be content with a middle of the pack position if it meant being within a couple lengths behind the winner. That type of race would at least give us a direction of where to go next.

So-So

4th Place – middle of the pack. It was not as bad as No Lip’s debut for us a couple months ago, but it also was not the momentum-building effort we were hoping for off his win last month. At this point, there are more questions than answers. The most disturbing part of yesterday’s race is that he got what could be described as the “perfect trip” yet could not finish in the lane. At least the 4th place yielded a check big enough to pay for a few weeks of expenses.

Yesterday’s race was billed as a “prep” for a stakes race in 3 weeks on the grass. After talking with Tom after the race, it is still our plan to move forward in that direction – assuming he trains well enough leading into the race. We both agreed that we would like to see him run on the turf before making any drastic decisions. It just so happens that at this stage of his career, there are not a lot of options to do this other than taking on the stakes competition.