Longshot's chance

It's safe to say that No Lip will be one of the longest shots on the board when the gate pops on Saturday (my guess would be at least 30-1). On paper, we don’t belong in this group. Thankfully, the race is scheduled to be run on grass, not paper. In our case, the turf could be just the equalizer we need. Of the 10 entries, only 2 (including us) have ever tried the turf. Additionally, we have the highest Tomlinson rating (a metric used to predict a horse’s ability to run on various surfaces based on their genetics) for turf in the field.

The gap between us and the rest of the field is wide, but if we can move forward on the turf and the others regress a bit, that might be enough to put us in the mix. I will be more concerned about how we finish than where we finish. If he is closing ground and extending his stride at the end of the race, I would be content with a middle of the pack position if it meant being within a couple lengths behind the winner. That type of race would at least give us a direction of where to go next.