A Passing Grade

I had high expectations for No Lip when the Fair Grounds meet began. He fell short of the monetary goal I set for him, but overall I would grade his meet a “C+”. For the 3 months ended 3/31, he started 4 times and had gross earnings a little over $31k. After expenses, the operating profit was about $13k. While that number only chips away at our purchase price, I was encouraged enough by his last couple races to move forward with him.

I thought he ran a good race yesterday. As the chart caller indicated, he got a little hung up on the turn and the jock mentioned after the race that it took a while to get him going again. He might not have won the race since the winner was so impressive, but the trouble likely cost us second place and about $4k in purse money. The winner’s time was a full half-second faster than an open allowance race for older horses an hour later going the same distance on the turf. Bottom line, he ran a good race while sprinting for the first time.

The plan now is to let Tom take him north to Louisville next week and look for an allowance race at the end of April at Indiana Downs (ID). While the purses are very good at ID ($37k for first level allowance), the competition is moderate since their meet coincides with nearby Churchill Downs. If all else fails, we can bring him up to Canterbury in June to run against real weak competition and low purse money ($16k for comparable allowance race).

Speaking of Canterbury, I have been in contact with a couple different trainers to look for some cheap horses to bring up here. I will also take the money we have at the FG and move it to Keeneland in hopes of finding something reasonably priced there that could eventually come up here for the summer months.

A Handicapping Puzzle

It looks like a well-matched field of 7 facing No Lip on Monday. Unlike our last race where I knew going in we were up against it, this group offers a great opportunity for our colt to race against similar competition. Each of the 7 have had some good efforts, but all have some question marks. Only 3 of the 7 have raced on the grass, which should help our chances. However, all of the others have won sprint races. There are some horses coming off long layoffs and others who raced just last week - I like our 23-day break coming into the race.

No Lip has been training well and the biggest question will be whether or not he can break quick enough to keep up with the pace which will be much faster in the early stages than what he is used to. As mentioned earlier, our "hope" is that he will be able to finsh with more energy than what he has in his route efforts. My final take on the race is that if the rail horse (Very Possebull) breaks sharp and takes to the grass, the rest of us will be running for 2nd place. If not, we have as good a shot as any to get our picture taken.

Regardless of outcome, this will be his final race in New Orleans this season as their meet comes to a close. As such, we will have a decision to make after the race about what to do with him. Turf sprinting is a unique question that I am anxious to answer. I have seen many a horse look "so-so" running other races become very successful turf sprinters. That is not a prediction - just a hopeful observation.